Rain or Shine
Students plot a lemonade stand's weather-and-sales data — ready-made, one dataset at a time — and learn to name what they see: positive, negative, or no association, and the outlier with a story. The gentler on-ramp to What's the Connection.
Common Core standards covered
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Teacher-facing overview
Big idea: Construct and interpret scatter plots for bivariate measurement data, describing patterns of association including clustering, outliers, positive or negative association, and linear association.
Student target: “I can plot paired data as a scatter plot and describe the association: positive, negative, or none; roughly linear or not; and any outlier, with a real-world story for it.”
Success criteria: I can plot (x, y) pairs accurately with labeled axes. · I can name an association positive, negative, or none — and say it in weather-and-sales words. · I can spot an outlier and offer a plausible story for it. · I can say when a cloud of points is roughly linear.
Essential question
A summer stand tracks weather and sales. When do two number lists actually have something to do with each other — and how does a picture show it?
Learning target: I can plot paired data as a scatter plot and describe the association: positive, negative, or none; roughly linear or not; and any outlier, with a real-world story for it.
Success criteria
- I can plot (x, y) pairs accurately with labeled axes.
- I can name an association positive, negative, or none — and say it in weather-and-sales words.
- I can spot an outlier and offer a plausible story for it.
- I can say when a cloud of points is roughly linear.
Why this matters
This is 8.SP.A.1 with the data already on cards: students spend the whole lesson on the standard's actual verbs — construct, interpret, describe — instead of on the logistics of measuring arm spans. All three association types show up in one storyline, and the outlier comes with a findable story, which is the interpretive habit scatter plots exist to teach. What's the Connection then adds the messy, motivating part: data the class collects itself.
Students should already be able to
- Plotting ordered pairs in quadrant I.
- Reading axis scales that skip-count.
- Informal sense of 'as one goes up, the other…'.
Vocabulary to define explicitly
- Scatter plot
A graph putting one measurement across and the other up — one dot per paired observation.
Example: The day (26°, 18 cups) becomes the dot at x = 26, y = 18.
Not an example: A line graph connecting the dots in date order — scatter plots don't connect; the SHAPE of the cloud is the message.
🔒 3 more terms with examples and non-examples — Positive association, Negative association, Outlier — are defined in the full lesson. See plans →
Where this shows up outside the classroom
Assessment plan
Formative — for feedback during the lesson
- Warm-up predictions with reasons.
- Verdict-table rows during team plots — the jersey row especially.
- The 30°-day prediction and its hedging.
Summative — the graded evidence: The exit ticket (plot, frame, outlier interrogation), scored with the four-criterion rubric.
The task students work on
The Rain or Shine stand sells lemonade and umbrellas at the park, and the owner logged three summers' worth of questions in one notebook: eight days of afternoon temperature vs cups of lemonade sold (one storm-shortened day included), eight days of sunny hours vs umbrellas sold, and — the owner's odd hunch — eight players' jersey numbers vs points scored at the park league. Your team plots each list and tells the owner which pairs are really related.
The owner's notebook — three question pairs.
| Dataset | Pairs (x, y) | Association | Linear? | Outlier? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temp vs lemonade | (10,4) (14,6) (16,9) (20,12) (22,14) (26,18) (28,20) (24,4) | |||
| Sunny hrs vs umbrellas | (1,9) (2,8) (3,8) (4,6) (5,5) (6,4) (7,2) (8,1) | |||
| Jersey # vs points | (3,7) (5,2) (8,9) (12,4) (15,8) (18,3) (21,6) (23,5) |
Anticipated student strategies
Plot-and-describe is the standard itself; the thumb test gives outliers a definition; the ruler preview points at next lesson without stealing it.
- Plot, then squint. The student plots all eight points, then describes the overall drift of the cloud: climbing, falling, or shapeless.
The core routine. Share first, and push past 'it goes up' to the two-variable sentence: hotter days SELL MORE cups.
🔒 2 more anticipated strategies with select-and-sequence guidance are in the full lesson. See plans →
Lesson script
Record the class predictions on the board, including the confident laughter at the jersey question. Today the plots rule on all three.
Listen for: No mechanism — the number is just cloth. (Hold this: 'no reason' predicts 'no pattern', and the plot will agree.)
The describing frame goes on the board: association (positive/negative/none) + shape (roughly linear or not) + outliers (which point, what story).
- Axes labeled with units before the first dot.
- Describe the trend across ALL points; then, and only then, discuss the one that disagrees.
Listen for: It's real — that day happened. The outlier carries information (storms kill sales) that the pattern alone misses.
🔒 The remaining 4 steps — fully scripted with teacher-says lines, discourse questions, look-fors, and interventions — are in the full lesson. See plans →
Misconceptions and how to respond
- “Connect the dots in order.” Scatter plots never connect — the days aren't a sequence, they're a cloud. The shape of the cloud, not a path through it, carries the answer.
- “Negative association means the variables aren't related.” — the teacher response is in the full lesson.
- “The biggest number is the outlier.” — the teacher response is in the full lesson.
- “Delete outliers to clean the data.” — the teacher response is in the full lesson.
🔒 Every misconception ships with a tested classroom response. See plans →
Scaffolded practice
The workbook follows gradual release rather than a page of blank prompts: 1 fully worked, 1 partially completed, then 4 independent.
- I doPlot the lemonade data — (10,4), (14,6), (16,9), (20,12), (22,14), (26,18), (28,20), (24,4) — and run the describing frame.
🔒 5 more prompts across all three release tiers are in the full lesson. See plans →
Worked solutions and scaffolds for every prompt are in the downloadable kit, included with membership. See plans and pricing.
Exit ticket
- Plot these five days of temperature vs hot-chocolate cups: (2, 18), (6, 15), (10, 10), (14, 6), (18, 3). Name the association.
🔒 2 more exit-ticket questions are in the full lesson. See plans →
Worked answers, the completed answer tables, and the scoring rubric are in the downloadable kit, included with membership. See plans and pricing.
Printable handouts in the kit
All handouts are in Printable_Handouts.pdf inside the kit download.
Materials and classroom resources
Student experience
Students enter through a low-floor prompt, build or sketch a model, test a strategy, revise their thinking, collaborate, and present a final solution. The task remains accessible while allowing for sophisticated reasoning.
Detailed facilitation notes
- Step 1: Plot the lemonade data and describe the pattern. Ask: “What do you notice?”, “What could you try next?”, and “How can you prove that?”
- Step 2: Find and explain the outlier. Ask: “What do you notice?”, “What could you try next?”, and “How can you prove that?”
- Step 3: Plot the umbrella data — the opposite pattern. Ask: “What do you notice?”, “What could you try next?”, and “How can you prove that?”
- Step 4: Test a no-pattern dataset. Ask: “What do you notice?”, “What could you try next?”, and “How can you prove that?”
Differentiation and inclusion
Support: Data is pre-collected, small (8 points), and whole-number; one dataset at a time with a fixed describing frame. Extend by collecting the class's own paired data — What's the Connection's whole design.
Language support: “I started by…”, “My model shows…”, and “I know my answer is reasonable because…”.
Extension: Require a second solution, alter a condition, or have students write a challenge for another group.
Accessibility: Manipulatives, enlarged visuals, oral response choices, partner reading, and reduced-copy student pages.
Assessment plan
Formative checks: Strategy choice, accuracy, representation, collaboration, and explanation.
End evidence: Two completed scatter plots with the association named and the outlier explained.
Mastery: The student completes the task accurately and explains the strategy with limited prompting.